
Tokio Marine Kiln Catastrophe Syndicate 557
Underwriting Year Accounts for the 2022 Year of Account
56
2.
Use of critical accounting estimates and judgements in applying accounting policies
The preparation of the underwriting year accounts requires the use of certain critical accounting estimates. It also requires
management to exercise its judgement in the process of applying the Syndicate
a higher degree of judgement or complexity, or areas where assumptions and estimates are significant to the underwriting
accounts are those listed below.
Incurred but
not reported
claims (IBNR)
The estimation of claims IBNR is generally subject to a greater degree of uncertainty than the
estimation of the cost of settling claims already notified to the Syndicate
, where more information
about the claim event is generally available. In calculating the estimated cost of unpaid claims, t
he
Syndicate
uses a variety of estimation techniques, generally based upon statistical analyses of
historical experience, which assu
mes that the development pattern of the current claims will be
consistent with past experience. Allowance is made, however, for changes or uncertainties which
may create distortions in the underlying statistics or which might cause the cost of unsettled cl
aims
to increase or reduce when compared with the cost of previously settled claims including:
changes in processes which might accelerate or slow down the development and/or recording
of paid or incurred claims compared with the statistics from previous periods;
changes in the legal environment;
the effects of inflation;
changes in the mix of business;
the impact of large losses; and
movements in industry benchmarks.
A component of these estimation techniques is usually the estimation of the cost of notif
ied but not
paid claims. In estimating the cost of these, regard is given to the claim circumstance as reported,
any information available from loss adjusters and information on the cost of settling claims with
similar characteristics in previous periods.
Large claims affecting each relevant business class are generally assessed separately, either
measured on a case-by-case
basis or projected separately, in order to allow for the possible distorting
effect of the development and incidence of these large claims.
Where possible, multiple techniques are adopted in order to estimate the required level of provisions.
This assist
s in giving greater understanding of the trends inherent in the data being projected. The
projections given by the various methodologies also assist in setting the range of possible outcomes.
The most appropriate estimation technique is selected taking int
o account the characteristics of the
business class and the extent of the development of each accident year. The amount of salvage and
subrogation recoveries is separately identified and, where material, reported as an asset.
The Directors consider that t
he provisions for gross claims and related reinsurance recoveries are
fairly stated on the basis of the information currently available to them. However, the ultimate liability
will vary as a result of subsequent information and events and this may result
in significant
adjustments to the amounts provided. Adjustments to the amounts of claims provisions established
in prior years are reflected in the report and accounts
for the period in which the adjustments are
made. The methods used, and the estimates made, are reviewed regularly.
Provisions are calculated gross of any reinsurance recoveries. A separate estimate is made of the
amounts that will be recoverable from reinsurers based upon the gross provisions and having due
regard to collectability. An esti
mate of the future cost of indirect claims handling is calculated as a
percentage of the claims reserves held at the balance sheet date.
Reinsurance
occurrence of the claim and the claim being reported. For short tail risks, the costs of claims notified
to the Syndicate at the year-end date are estimated on a case-by-case
basis to reflect the individual
circumstances of each claim. The ultimate expecte
d cost of claims is projected from this data by
reference to statistics which show how estimates of claims incurred in previous periods have
developed over time to reflect changes in the underlying estimates of the cost of notified claims and
late notifications.
COVID-19
The Directors are aware of the heightened estimation uncertainty in reserving for estimated losses
arising from COVID-
19 due to the unique nature of the loss. Management have a robust reserving
approach which supports the held reserves at the year-end date.